Election Analysis: What's Not Been Said
For all the hours and hours of commentary, several key points have been overlooked in the aftermath of the Democratic sweep:
1. Republicans outspent Democrats, and when final figures come in later this year, it will likely be the typical 2-to-1 advantage.
2. This was Howard Dean's triumph as much as anyone's; for all the vilification of the good doctor, he led the party as ably as any DNC chairman, and is poised for more triumphs in '08.
3. Racism and sexism were GOP tactics nationwide, not only the infamous ad in Tennessee, but the ads lambasting Nancy Pelosi (would that have been done to Steny Hoyer?) and the incoming chairs of committees (three black men). It worked in Tennessee, and maybe elsewhere.
4. The right wing points to Lieberman's victory as if this was a vindication of his war stance, but he is, after all, a liberal on economic issues and the GOP abdanoned its candidate altogether. Ned Lamont, like Howard Dean before him, legitimated sharp criticism of the Iraq war, and perhaps helped Democrats win Congress back as a result.
5. Democrats won without global warming or other environmental degradations being an issue, without the failure of "no child left behind" being an issue, and during a time of relative economic stability. These issues should work to their advantage in '08 if the new Congress can highlight them in hearings and legislation--for example, stagnant real income for most Americans.
6. There was a Democratic agenda--minimum wage hike (none since 1997), prescription drug plan reform, tax fairness, and accountability--and this agenda must now be enacted.
7. Despite renewed attempts to scare the public (North Korea, Iran, "terrorists" in Iraq, general anti-Muslim hectoring), and even in the absence of much courage on the part of Democrats or a vibrant anti-war movement, the voters remained calm and voted against war and against the fear mongering. It took four years, but that is progress.
8. Individuals who lost or won big: Mitt Romney is hurt badly by the unbelievably poor showing of his hand-picked lieutenant governor and candidate, who was thumped by a neophyte. Santorum, thank heaven, is finished, humiliated at the polls. Newcomers to watch: Sherrodd Brown, Bob Casey, Janet Napolitano.
9. Right wing commentators say they lost because basic values were abandoned. Which ones? Only fiscal recklessness was clearly at odds with traditional Republican ideology. Militarism, executive power, tax giveaways to the wealthy, corporate lobbying, anti-environmentalism, anti-working family, anti-minorities, xenophobia: all of these "values" were promoted by Bush and the last three Congresses with perfect consistency. They have been rejected.
10. There is no quick fix for Iraq. We are only beginning to see the carnage and chaos. All politicians tethered to Iraq policy---McCain included--will be vulnerable in '08.
--John Tirman